│ │ │ │ │ │+ │ │+ +│ │+ +│0│+ +│0│+ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ │ │ │0│ │0│ │0│ │0│ │0│ +│0│ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ ─┼─┼─ │ │ +│ │ +│ │ +│ │0 +│ │0 +│ │0 +│ │0
In this case + wins at the seventh move.
The next step I made was to ascertain what number of combinations were required for all the possible variety of moves and situations. I found this to be comparatively insignificant.
I therefore easily sketched out mechanism by which such an automaton might be guided. Hitherto I had considered only the philosophical view of the subject, but a new idea now entered my head which seemed to offer some chance of enabling me to acquire the funds necessary to complete the Analytical Engine.
It occurred to me that if an automaton were made to play this game, it might be surrounded with such attractive circumstances that a very popular and profitable exhibition might be produced. I imagined that the machine might consist of the figures of two children playing against each other, accompanied by a lamb and a cock. That the child who won the game might clap his hands whilst the cock was crowing, after which, that the child who was beaten might cry and wring his hands whilst the lamb began bleating.
I then proceeded to sketch various mechanical means by which every action could be produced. These, when compared with those I had employed for the Analytical Engine, {469} were remarkably simple. A difficulty, however, arose of a novel kind. It will have been observed, in the explanation I gave of the Analytical Engine, that cases arose in which it became necessary, on the occurrence of certain conditions, that the machine itself should select one out of two or more distinct modes of calculation. The particular one to be adopted could only be known when those calculations on which the selection depended had been already made.
〈DIFFICULTY ARISING FROM CHOICE.〉
The new difficulty consisted in this, that when the automaton had to move, it might occur that there were two different moves, each equally conducive to his winning the game. In this case no reason existed within the machine to direct his choice: unless, also, some provision were made, the machine would attempt two contradictory motions.
The first remedy I devised for this defect was to make the machine keep a record of the number of games it had won from the commencement of its existence. Whenever two moves, which we may call A and B, were equally conducive to winning the game, the automaton was made to consult the record of the number of the games he had won. If that number happened to be even, he was directed to take the course A; if it were odd, he was to take the course B.
If there were three moves equally possible, the automaton was directed to divide the number of games he had won by three. In this case the numbers 0, 1, or 2 might be the remainder, and the machine was directed to take the course A, B, or C accordingly.
It is obvious that any number of conditions might be thus provided for. An inquiring spectator, who observed the games played by the automaton, might watch a long time before he discovered the principle upon which it acted. It is also worthy of remark how admirably this illustrates {470} the best definitions of chance by the philosopher and the poet:—
“Chance is but the expression of man’s ignorance.”—LAPLACE.
“All chance, design ill understood.”—POPE.
〈EXHIBITION OF AUTOMATON.〉
Having fully satisfied myself of the power of making such an automaton, the next step was to ascertain whether there was any probability, if it were exhibited to the public, of its producing, in a moderate time, such a sum of money as would enable me to construct the Analytical Engine. A friend, to whom I had at an early period communicated the idea, entertained great hopes of its pecuniary success. When it became known that an automaton could beat not merely children but even papa and mamma at a child’s game, it seemed not unreasonable to expect that every child who heard of it would ask mamma to see it. On the other hand, every mamma, and some few papas, who heard of it would doubtless take their children to so singular and interesting a sight. I resolved, on my return to London, to make inquiries as to the relative productiveness of the various exhibitions of recent years, and also to obtain some rough estimate of the probable time it would take to construct the automaton, as well as some approximation to the expense.
It occurred to me that if half a dozen were made, they might be exhibited in three different places at the same time. Each exhibitor might then have an automaton in reserve in case of accidental injury. On my return to town I made the inquiries I alluded to, and found that the English machine for making Latin verses, the German talking-machine, as well as several others, were entire failures in a pecuniary point of view. I also found that the most profitable exhibition which had occurred for many years was that of the little dwarf, General Tom Thumb. {471}
On considering the whole question, I arrived at the conclusion, that to conduct the affair to a successful issue it would occupy so much of my own time to contrive and execute the machinery, and then to superintend the working out of the plan, that even if successful in point of pecuniary profit, it would be too late to avail myself of the money thus acquired to complete the Analytical Engine.
_Problem of the Three Magnetic Bodies._
The problem of the three bodies, which has cost such unwearied labour to so many of the highest intellects of this and the past age, is simple compared with another which is opening upon us. We now possess a very extensive series of well-recorded observations of the positions of the magnetic needle, in various parts of our globe, during about thirty years.
〈CAUSES OF MAGNETIC CHANGES.〉
Certain periods of changes of about ten or eleven years are said to be indicated as connected with changes in the amount of solar spots; but the inductive evidence scarcely rests upon three periods, and it seems more probable that these effects arise from some common cause.
(1.) It has been long known that the earth has at least two if not more magnetic poles.
(2.) It is probable, therefore, that the sun and moon also have several magnetic poles.
(3.) In 1826 I proved that when a magnet is brought into proximity to a piece of matter capable of becoming magnetic, the magnetism communicated by it requires _time_ for its full development in the body magnetized. Also that when the influence of the magnet is removed, the magnetized body requires _time_ to regain its former state. {472}
This being the case, it is required, having assumed certain positions for the poles of these various magnetic bodies, to calculate their reciprocal influences in changing the positions of those poles on the other bodies. The development of the equations representing these forces will indicate cycles which really belong to the nature of the subject. The comparisons of a long series of observations with recorded facts will ultimately enable us to determine both the number and position of those poles upon each body.
〈ELECTRIC CHANGES.〉
Electricity possesses an analogous property with respect to time being required for its full action. If the bodies of our system influence each other electrically, other developments will be required and other cycles discovered.
When the equations resulting from the actions of these causes are formed, and means of developing them arranged, the whole of the rest of the work comes under the domain of machinery.
{473}
