Probability theory
Branch · 1650s-1930s · Mathematics, stage 2: Map the branches
Probability began with questions about gambling put to Pascal and Fermat in the 1650s and grew through the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries into a working theory of errors and averages, with Laplace and Gauss applying it to astronomical measurement. It had no agreed foundation until 1933, when Kolmogorov defined probability as a measure on sets of outcomes, which made it a part of analysis and settled what the rules are. What the numbers mean remained open after the mathematics was fixed.
What it claims
- Uncertainty can be measured on a scale from 0 to 1 and reasoned about exactly.
- Probabilities attach to sets of outcomes and must combine consistently across them.
- The long-run behaviour of repeated trials is predictable even when no single outcome is.
Key ideas
People
Sources
- Probability theory Wikipedia
- Probability theory Encyclopaedia Britannica
- Interpretations of Probability Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
